If Metro Richmond real estate were a holiday party, 2025 was the year we all stopped yelling over the music and actually had a conversation.
Not a crash. Not a boom. Just a market that got a tiny bit more… human.
This end-of-year recap pulls from Central Virginia Regional MLS data through November 2025 (current as of December 10, 2025), and it covers Richmond City, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, and Powhatan.
The quick Metro Richmond snapshot (through November 2025)
Here’s the headline: prices held up, sales stayed steady-ish, and the pace cooled just a bit.
Across the Richmond Metro (Richmond City + Chesterfield + Henrico + Hanover), year-to-date through November:
-
Median sales price: $434,900 (+2.6% YoY)
-
Closed sales: 9,522 (+1.1% YoY)
-
New listings: 12,556 (+5.3% YoY)
-
Days on market (until sale): 25 days (up from 23)
-
Months of supply: ~1.6 (still tight- remember a balanced market is 6 months!)
-
% of original list price received: 100.1% YTD (down from 101.1% last year— hello, negotiating power)
And just to keep it honest: November itself did what November does—fewer new listings and fewer closings than earlier months, plus a slightly slower tempo. The Metro’s median for November 2025 came in at $424,725 (down 1.2% YoY), and days on market ticked up. cvmls-public.stats.showingtime.com
Translation? If 2024 felt like “blink and the house is gone,” 2025 was more like: blink, take a breath, read the disclosures, then make a decision.
County-by-county: the story behind the stats
Chesterfield County
Chesterfield stayed dependable—active, stable, and still competitive for well-priced homes.
-
YTD median sales price: $440,000 (+3.3%)
-
YTD closed sales: 3,905 (+0.5%)
-
YTD new listings: 5,198 (+6.0%)
-
Months of supply: ~1.7
What I’m seeing on the ground: strong demand for “move-in ready” homes, but buyers are less tolerant of mystery roofs and 2003 HVAC systems. (As they should be.)
Henrico County
Henrico continues to be the “where convenience meets value” darling—especially for buyers who want location, schools, and less driving.
-
YTD median sales price: $410,000 (+1.2%)
-
YTD closed sales: 2,561 (+4.5%)
-
Months of supply: ~1.2 (tightest of the bunch)
What this means: when supply is this thin, the best homes still move quickly. Not always with 14 offers, but quickly.
Hanover County
Hanover’s market stayed strong, but the headline here is “steady”—especially year-to-date pricing.
-
YTD median sales price: $487,000 (-0.6%)
-
YTD closed sales: 1,096 (+2.8%)
-
Months of supply: ~1.8 cvmls-public.stats.showingtime.com
My take: Hanover is still a premium market. The small dip YTD is more about mix of homes sold than anything dramatic. (A handful of different price points can swing Hanover stats faster than, say, Chesterfield.)
Powhatan County
Powhatan does what Powhatan does: fewer homes overall, bigger price swings month-to-month, and a persistent premium for land + privacy.
-
YTD median sales price: $505,000 (+4.2%)
-
YTD closed sales: 368 (+5.4%)
-
Months of supply: ~2.4 (more breathing room than most)
What I’m watching: as more buyers prioritize space, workshops, and room to roam, Powhatan continues to benefit—especially when rates dip and “stretch buyers” re-enter.
Richmond City
Richmond City remains its own beautiful, complicated creature.
-
YTD median sales price: $428,750 (+7.5%)
-
YTD closed sales: 1,960 (-2.9%)
-
Months of supply: ~1.8
The City’s year-to-date price growth stands out. But zoom in and you’ll see the normal Richmond truth: one neighborhood can be a knife fight, another can be calm, and the gap between “updated and totally ready” vs. “needs everything” widened in 2025.
Mortgage rates: the “co-star” of every 2025 decision
If you bought or sold this year, you already know: mortgage rates were the mood lighting.
As of December 11, 2025, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey has the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% (down from 6.60%a year earlier).
That’s not 3% (which we’re unlikely to ever see again), but it’s meaningful. And it’s part of why we saw buyers jump back in during moments when rates eased—even slightly.
So what happens in 2026?
Nobody has a crystal ball (if they do, please tell them to call me), but the major forecasters are leaning in the same direction: rates may drift lower, slowly, and the market could thaw.
-
Fannie Mae’s ESR group (September 2025 outlook) forecasted mortgage rates ending 2026 around 5.9%.
-
NAR’s research team has pointed to mortgage rates potentially dropping to around 6% in 2026, which they expect would bring more buyers back into the market.
Even if we land in the “high 5s to low 6s,” that’s enough to change that affordability math—and consumer confidence—without needing a dramatic shift.
My 2026 Richmond-area predictions (the practical kind)
Here’s what I think we’ll see as we move into 2026:
-
More normal negotiations (but still not a buyer’s market).
With list-to-sale ratios cooling from the peak intensity, buyers will keep asking for repairs, credits, and concessions—especially on homes that aren’t turnkey. -
Turnkey homes will stay competitive.
Inventory is still tight in the Metro (about 1.6 months of supply YTD). When a home is priced right and shows well, it will absolutely still get attention. -
The “sweet spot” will win: updated, well-maintained, and realistically priced.
The days of “it’ll sell no matter what” are mostly behind us. Condition and pricing strategy mattered more in late 2025, and that trend continues. -
Local policy + housing supply will be a bigger storyline.
Richmond’s ongoing zoning conversation (including how duplexes/ADUs are handled) is one of the longer-term “supply levers” worth watching as we head into 2026.
What this means for you (buyers + sellers)
If you’re buying in 2026: you may get slightly better rate windows, more options than the past few years, and a little more room to negotiate—especially if you’re flexible on closing timelines or cosmetic updates.
If you’re selling in 2026: the opportunity is still strong, but the winning formula is clear: pricing that matches today’s comps + a home that feels cared for (clean, bright, repaired, staged, marketed like we mean it).
And if you’re somewhere in between—curious, but not ready—this is exactly the time to do a low-pressure strategy session. (A.k.a. “let’s look at the numbers and see what makes sense without spiraling.”)
