If you’re waiting for 2021 again—the “list it on Thursday, 47 offers by Sunday, and someone writes the seller a love sonnet” era—I don’t think that’s coming back. And honestly? That’s not bad news.
What is happening as we begin 2026 is something I’ll call more normal: we still have strong demand in Richmond and the surrounding counties, but we also have more room for strategy, more room for due diligence, and (hallelujah) more room for real conversations.
If you’re buying or selling in Richmond City, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, or Powhatan, here’s the straightforward, non-panicky update.
How the market “feels” right now (without drowning you in numbers)
1) Inventory is still tight, and that keeps a floor under prices
Across the broader Central Virginia region, we’re still sitting at under ~2 months of supply for single-family homes. In plain English: there are not enough homes for all the people who want them, especially in the most popular pockets.
That’s why I don’t see prices “dropping” in any meaningful way. Do we see some price reductions? Yes. But that’s usually a specific house problem, not a “Richmond is collapsing” problem.
2) Negotiations (and inspections) are back
This is the biggest shift I’m seeing—and it’s healthy.
Sellers aren’t automatically getting a blank check just for having a house, and buyers aren’t having to sign over their firstborn to get one (in most cases, at least).
The data shows the pace has cooled from the peak frenzy—homes are taking a bit longer than “blink and it’s pending,” and sellers are, on average, not getting quite the same level of automatic over-asking behavior we saw when everything was a bidding war.
3) Mortgage rates: don’t build your whole plan around a big drop
As of January 8, 2026, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey puts the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.16%.
Could rates drift a bit? Sure. But I agree with your instinct: a dramatic drop isn’t likely soon enough to be the “wait it out” strategy—and in the meantime, life happens (job changes, kids, divorces, downsizing, “we cannot share one bathroom for one more day,” etc.).
A quick “Richmond-area snapshot” by vibe (not a spreadsheet)
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City of Richmond and Henrico: Still highly competitive for homes that are priced right and show well. Zillow’s trend pages are still showing many areas going pending in around two weeks.
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Chesterfield and Hanover: Strong demand, lots of family/space-driven buyers, and good homes move quickly—again, especially when they’re well-prepped and priced correctly.
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Powhatan: More breathing room than some other core areas, but it’s definitely not sleepy—the data still shows a market where buyers and sellers both need a plan.
Zooming out: Richmond is still getting national attention as a market to watch in 2026.
If you’re buying in early 2026
The biggest advantage you have right now: strategy (not speed)
Here’s a real (anonymous) example that’s exactly what I mean:
I had buyers fall in love with a home and we knew it would be competitive. So before we even wrote the offer, we got super honest about:
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their risk tolerance
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what they needed to feel comfortable after a home inspection
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what would make the offer clean and easy for the seller without throwing caution to the wind
We didn’t waive everything. We waived enough to show the seller we weren’t going to come back with a mile-long repair list—but we still protected the buyers from major issues.
Result: they got the house because the offer was thoughtful, not just loud.
That’s the 2026 playbook: a confident, clean offer that fits YOUR comfort level.
I tell my buyer clients all the time- I’m not here to “sell you” a house. This is your journey and it needs to be on your timeline.
My job is to help you:
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understand what’s realistic in the neighborhoods you like
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spot red flags (and help you avoid expensive regret)
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negotiate with a calm head when your emotions may be doing cartwheels
If you’re thinking of buying, I can run a quick “buyer reality check” for your target area: what’s actually moving, what’s sitting, and what winning offers are doing right now. Just reply to this email.
If you’re selling in early 2026
“Top dollar” is still out there… it just has to be earned
The homes that sit right now? They usually fall into one of three buckets:
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Overpriced
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Not “done” (or not presented well)
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Not marketed well (yes, marketing still matters—more than ever)
And the data backs up the overall environment: inventory is still constrained regionally, and prices are generally holding up over the longer run—so buyers are out there.
What’s changed is that buyers are more selective. They’ll pay for quality, but they’re less willing to “just accept” obvious condition issues at a premium price.
My seller promise
I’m not here to slap a sign in the yard and hope for the best. I’ll give you:
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a clear pricing strategy (with the “why,” not just the number)
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a prep plan that makes sense for your budget and timeline
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marketing that actually does the job (not just pretty photos)
“Should we wait until rates drop?”
My answer is still no.
Rates are unlikely to drop enough soon to make a dramatic difference for most people—and while you’re waiting, prices can keep creeping up. This can all cause you to lose time you don’t get back, and end up paying more when you do buy.
If you’re ready to buy or ready to sell, the better move is: let’s meet and build a strategy that fits your timeline, your comfort level, and your goals. (Not a generic one. Yours.)
Freddie Mac’s current reading (6.16% as of January 8, 2026) is exactly why I’m focusing clients on strategy and terms—not fantasies about a quick return to 3%.
Want the “what does this mean for my house?” version?
Reply to this email (or call/text me) with one of these and I’ll send you a quick, no-pressure snapshot:
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Your neighborhood (or the one you want to buy in)
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Your price range (whether you’re buying or selling)
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Your timeline (“this spring,” “sometime this year,” “ just curious”)
I’ll tell you what’s realistic, what’s working, and what I’d do if you were my sibling/best friend/client-who-I-like-a-lot.
