Here’s a September puzzle for you.
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates just hit their highest point in a year and a half (daily trackers had the 30-year fixed at 7.24% on Wednesday, and Freddie Mac‘s weekly average had already climbed to 6.76% the week before), and the Fed just did something it hasn’t done since 2023: it raised rates. That’s the kind of headline that’s supposed to freeze a housing market in place.
And yet. Both Zillow and Realtor.com ranked Richmond a top-10 housing market in the country for 2026. Zillow put us at #9, which is the same spot as last year, and we spent the first half of this year leading every major metro in Virginia in home sales growth. Zillow has the typical Richmond home value up 1.8% over the past year, which doesn’t sound like much until you notice it’s ahead of the national pace.
So which is it? Frozen or hot?
Honestly? Neither. Or both. Richmond has become a market that makes you earn it, but it’s just not the same in every pocket. (And I’m also sorry that that’s the most useful thing I can tell you this fall.)
So, about yesterday.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point. Unanimous vote. First hike since July 2023, which means we’ve officially left the “any day now they’ll cut” era and walked into something else.
The short version of why: the economy is running stronger than expected, inflation has spent the summer sitting stubbornly above where the Fed wants it, and oil prices (thanks, geopolitics) aren’t helping. And this probably isn’t a one-and-done. Sixteen of eighteen Fed officials penciled in at least one more hike before the year is out.
Here’s the part that trips everyone up, so let me save you a Google: the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. It sets the overnight rate banks charge each other. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007 — mostly before the Fed said a word. Rates climbed six days in a row heading into the meeting. Wednesday’s announcement confirmed the market’s suspicions.
What does it actually mean for your payment? On a $400,000 loan, the move from last week’s 6.76% to this week’s 7.24% is roughly $130 a month. Not nothing. But also not the difference between buying a house and not buying a house. Or it shouldn’t be, which is worth saying out loud, because the headlines will make it sound like it is.
The view from the sidewalk
The national rankings measure demand, and the demand is real. But here’s what the rankings can’t see, and what I watch happen every week.
The houses that are done (truly done, nothing left on the buyer’s mental to-do list) still move FAST. In the sought-after neighborhoods, when a house feels done and done well, it still gets a little chaotic. Multiple offers. Quick decisions. No inspections. A flashback to 2021.
The houses that are good, fine, average? They’re taking a little longer. Not forever, just longer than we spent years getting used to. And there’s a data point hiding behind that: homes across Richmond and surrounding counties are now selling right at asking price on average, after years of routinely selling above it. That’s not a price drop. That’s negotiation returning to the table.
Here’s the part I find genuinely interesting. The typical home in the Richmond metro was built in 1993. In the city proper? 1959. Roughly 70% of everything for sale out there is more than twenty years old. Which means “done” is rare. And rare is exactly why it wins. When most of the competition comes with an aging roof and a 1990s kitchen, the house with nothing to fix isn’t just prettier. It’s literally more scarce.
So, should you do “everything” before you sell?
This is still the question I hear most from sellers.
Top-to-bottom renovation? Probably not. You’d be spending on someone else’s taste, and full renovations rarely return dollar-for-dollar.
But the days of doing nothing (listing as-is and finding a buyer who wouldn’t dream of asking for repairs) are, for most sellers, in the rearview mirror. Buyers are asking for repairs again. Inspections have teeth again. The gap between the quick sale and the slow one is preparation and pricing, not luck.
The strategic short list is different on every street, which is exactly why it’s a conversation and not a checklist. It’s just not the same for everyone.
One more thing worth knowing: single-family inventory is still quite tight (still under two months of supply) while condos and townhouses are drifting toward a more balanced market, with more selection than we’ve seen in a while. If you’ve been priced out of the detached (single-family) market, or you’re thinking about right-sizing, townhomes and condos are a great place to consider to start building.
If you’re buying right now
Listen. I KNOW. These rates are not great. There’s no spinning 7% to sound like a deal, and I’m not going to try. But look at what you’re getting in exchange: you can buy a house in Richmond this fall without a fistfight or an appraisal waiver. You can get an inspection that actually helps you. You might even be able to sleep on it. (Maybe. Think nap, maybe, over a three-day weekend “think session.” See above, re: done-and-done-well.)
Nationally, home sales have now slipped three months in a row. Richmond isn’t following that script, at least not yet, and that tells you something about who’s still buying here: people who need to move, not people who are shopping for fun. That’s a more negotiable room to walk into.
And rates move. They always have. If they come back down at some point, you’ll have bought in a market where you could still negotiate, and you can refinance when rates go down. If they keep climbing for a while? You’ll have bought before that, too.
What you can’t do is buy the house you loved last spring at last spring’s rate. That one’s gone. (Sorry.)
The bottom line: Richmond is still a top-10 market that’s not handing out participation trophies, and national market data is a little less of a factor here. Demand is real, prices are steady, and the wins go to sellers who prepare and buyers who show up ready. Strategy over speed, for the first time in years, and I, for one, don’t think that’s a bad thing.
If you’re wondering where your house (or your next house) fits into all of this, reach out. You know where to find me.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Sept. 16, 2026), Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Sept. 10, 2026), Mortgage News Daily rate index (Sept. 16, 2026), Zillow Home Value Index & 2026 Hottest Markets Forecast, Realtor.com 2026 market forecast, National Association of Realtors, Virginia Association of Realtors, Central Virginia Regional MLS, U.S. Census ACS.
FAQ
Q: What did the Fed do on September 16, 2026, and does it change my mortgage rate?
A: The Fed raised the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75%–4%, its first increase since 2023. That rate applies to overnight bank lending, not directly to mortgages. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which had already climbed above 5% before the announcement. If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, nothing about your payment changes. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage or a HELOC, expect your rate to move at its next adjustment.
Q: Are there more homes for sale in Richmond, VA now than there have been?
A: Yes. Active listings across the Richmond metro region were up 20.9% in August 2026 compared with a year earlier, with new listings up 9.3%, per Realtor.com. Even so, the median time on market was slightly shorter than last year. But more selection has not meant a stalled market.
Q: How do current mortgage rates affect a Richmond area home purchase?
A: The 30-year fixed averaged 6.76% as of September 10, 2026, per Freddie Mac, and daily trackers put it at 7.24% on September 16, the highest since January 2025. On a $400,000 loan, the difference between a 6.5% and 7.25% rate is roughly $200 per month in principal and interest (which is why refreshing your pre-approval before setting a budget matters).
Q: What are median home prices in the Richmond area?
A: For the three months ending August 2026 (source: Redfin, all home types): Richmond city $425,718 (−1.0% year-over-year), Henrico $400,846 (+2.9%), Chesterfield $429,562 (+2.3%), and Hanover $498,282 (+4.9%). Keep in mind that medians describe the middle sale, not your specific home’s value.
